Web Desk — November 22, 2025
New Delhi: India’s much-vaunted “independent foreign policy” has hit a wall. Facing Donald Trump’s 50% tariff hammer, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has abruptly reversed course, ordering state and private refiners to cease all Russian crude imports effective December 1 – a seismic shift that could balloon the nation’s oil bill by $11 billion annually and reshape global energy flows.
The capitulation, confirmed by Reliance Industries (led by Modi’s ally Mukesh Ambani), comes after Trump weaponized trade talks, slapping a 25% penalty tariff on Indian goods in August for flouting U.S. sanctions on Moscow. With total duties now at 50% – among the steepest ever – the move crippled exports from textiles to pharma, forcing Delhi’s hand. Ambani’s Jamnagar refinery, Russia’s top Indian customer (50% of its crude from Moscow in 2025), will switch to pricier Middle East and potentially American barrels, per company filings.
Russia supplied over a third of India’s 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd) needs in 2025 – up from 1% pre-Ukraine war – saving billions via discounts amid Western boycotts. But Trump’s August bombshell – “Stop buying Russian oil or face the consequences” – and threats to derail a bilateral trade pact sealed the deal. “No progress on our $500 billion trade goal without compliance,” a White House official reiterated, echoing Trump’s vow for “massive tariffs until they cease.”
The fallout: 10-year contracts worth $33 billion+ are now “practically meaningless,” with November shipments (already loaded) as the last gasp – visible drops expected in December data. U.S. experts hail it as Washington’s “biggest concession yet,” boosting American LNG and crude exports (already up 50% to India in H1 2025) while starving Moscow of $47 billion in 2024-level revenue. Critics in Delhi decry the “unfair, unjustified” tariffs, noting China and Turkey face no such heat despite bigger Russian buys.
As refiners scramble – with EU fuel bans from Russian crude looming January 2026 – inflation risks mount, potentially hiking petrol/diesel prices 10-15%. Modi’s defiance (“We chart our own path”) rings hollow now, exposing the fragility of balancing BRICS ties with U.S. economic lifelines. Will this thaw trade talks, or ignite domestic backlash? New Delhi’s energy chessboard just got bloodier.
